New Zealand’s EV Targets

According to the Ministry for the Environment, “two-thirds of transport emissions come from the light vehicle fleet.”

The light vehicle fleet includes all passenger cars, utes, and vans under 3,500 kg.

One way to reduce emissions is to switch from a combustion vehicle to a fully electric one.

Failed Target: 64,000 EVs by 2021

The National government set the first primary target for EV uptake in May 2016. Several initiatives were undertaken to have 64,000 EVs on the road by the end of 2021.

In reality, just over 36,000 EVs were on the road.

Despite the plan to address Fringe Benefit Tax rules, no changes were made – missing out on early EV uptake by corporate fleets. However, NZ passed the 64k mark in December 2022 due to the Clean Car Discount implemented (ironically) by the Labour government.

Transport plays a major role in New Zealand’s goal of reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

The Climate Commission report (April 2023) made some projections:

“From 2025 to 2030, our demonstration path sees annual light EV registrations climb from 11.5% to 67% of the market and reach 100% percent by 2035. This means 100% of cars entering the Aotearoa New Zealand fleet, whether new or new second-hand imports, are electric in 2035.” (source)

Here is the Climate Commission’s modelling. EB1 (etc…) is the Emissions Budget.

EB1 2022-2025
EB2 2026-2030
EB3 2031-2035

Actual EV market share of all light vehicles.

Emissions Reduction Plan (2022): 30% zero-emission vehicles by 2035

The Emissions Reduction Plan (May 2022) is a comprehensive plan from the Ministry for the Environment. With regards to transport:

Target 2 – Increase zero-emissions vehicles to 30 per cent of the light fleet by 2035.

This is a very ambitious target. It would require around 120,000 zero-emission vehicles to be added per year (and the same amount of combustion vehicles must leave the fleet).

Emissions Reduction Plan (2024): No targets, install more chargers

The second Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP – July 2024) contains very few plans to reduce emissions in the transport sector.

Install 10,000 EV chargers by 2030

The plan is to facilitate private investment to increase the number of public EV chargers. How this will lead to reduced emissions is unclear. Even the modelling document says:

“The effects of 10,000 public EV chargers are based on conservative assumptions in the absence of suitable empirical evidence to base any assessment on.” (p 34, source).

Revise the Clean Car Importer Standard

The most ironic ‘reduction plan’ is revisions to the Clean Car Importer Standard. The new revisions (enacted in 2024) reduce emission targets, leading to more emissions.

Incredibly, this is confirmed by the ERP:

These show an increase in emissions in future years.

The ERP contains no actual projections on EV market share except for this graphic. This projection suggests that reduction in travel by petrol/diesel vehicles will only start after 2030.

Clean Car Discount (from 2021-2023)

Enacted in 2021 by the Labour government, the Clean Car Discount introduced a series of rebates and fees on newly registered light vehicles in New Zealand. The rebate could only be claimed on the vehicle’s first registration in NZ.

The newly elected National government cancelled the scheme at the end of 2023.

Stage 1

1st July 2021 – Rebates for battery EVs and plug-in hybrid EVs.

1/7/21 – 31/3/22	New vehicles (under $80k)	Used import
BEV	$8,625	$3,450
PHEV	$5,750	$2,300

Stage 2

1st April 2022 – The scheme was extended; rebates were available on hybrids and low-emission petrol vehicles (less than 146g/km CO2. The rebate amount was dependent on the emissions level. Fees were introduced for high-emitting vehicles (more than 192g/km CO2).

Stage 3

1st July 2023 – The scheme was adjusted; the criteria for low-emitting vehicles were tightened. The fee-paying threshold was lowered to 150g/km CO2. Rebates were only available where emissions were under 100g/km CO2.

1/7/23	New vehicles (under $80k)	Used import
BEV	$7,025	$3,507
PHEV	$4,025	$2,012

End of Clean Car Discount

31st December 2023 – The newly elected National-led government ended the scheme.

References

Drive Electric published a paper by Concept Consulting showing that if the Clean Car Discount were removed, there would be 350,000 fewer EVs on the road by 2030.
EECA made a submission to the Climate Change Commission in 2021. It said: “50% of light vehicle imports will be electric by 2027, with 40% of the fleet electric by 2035.”
Emissions Reduction Plan 2024.
Emissions Reduction Plan 2024 – Technical annex.